⏱ 5-minute read
Monthly revenue is down to plan, and marketing is being asked if they can push harder on acquisition. The problem is they don't actually know if they should.
On paper, ROAS is holding. But the business has been over-reliant on promos and winback campaigns, repeat rates are soft, and margin is getting compressed. So you split the difference: add budget and hope a strong ROAS will offset any customer deterioration.
That's what happens when your company operates on platform truth instead of business truth. Because ROAS is a ratio. It can go up while promos get deeper, returns climb, repeat purchases slow, and cohort payback windows expand.
Start by asking the right questions. If you can't answer "What is our 12-month profit-based LTV?" without logging into five tools, you're not missing a metric. You're missing the number that decides whether growth is scaling or your business is slowly falling off a cliff.
Knowing The Peaks from the Valleys
Your single source of truth only needs to answer a few things.
What is our 12-month, profit based LTV by channel?
Which cohorts are compounding and which are flattening?
Where is margin leaking (discounts, shipping, returns, COGS)?
Which entry products create high-LTV customers vs one-and-dones?
What is the payback window in days, not vibes?
What Changes When You Know The Answers
Everyone speaks the same language.
Revenue is easy to inflate. Discounts, bundles, and promos all drive top-line growth while eroding margin. Profit-based LTV is hard to fake. It counts what stays after returns, COGS, and shipping. If your "best channel" can't produce profitable 12-month cohorts, it's not your best channel.
And LTV isn't one number. It's a distribution by cohort. Two brands can both report "$200 LTV" and be in completely different positions. One is propped up by a small group of whales. The other has consistent repeat behavior across segments.
The fact is, cohorts scale, not channels. If your September cohort repeats faster and returns less than the month prior, you have room to grow. If not, adding spend accelerates problems. That's the difference between brands that scale confidently and brands that scale into cash trouble.
The other piece most brands miss: your entry product is part of your acquisition strategy. Most optimize for "what converts." Smarter brands optimize for what creates the best customer. The first SKU determines whether you acquire bargain hunters, loyalists, or chronic returners, and that shows up in 12-month LTV.
Your New Checklist to Scale
The Punchline
The brand that knows its 12-month profit LTV by channel and segment will always outbid the brand that doesn’t — because it can spend with confidence and survive volatility. That’s what scaling actually is: buying growth you can afford, repeatedly, without breaking cash flow.
If you’re still stitching the story together across five tools, you’ll keep getting the same outcome: meetings that feel like debates, decisions that feel like guesses, and growth that feels fragile.
If you want a sanity check on your own 12-month profit LTV setup (what to calculate first, what to segment, and which “hidden leaks” to look for), reply LTV12 and I’ll tell you exactly what I’d look at in your data first.
